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Spockie-Tech
Site Admin
Joined: 31 May 2004
Posts: 3160
Location: Melbourne, Australia
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I think its still doing OK considering that just 9 months ago it was under $1..
Being a "thin" market (only 10-30 million dollars in it at the moment), it doesnt take too many big players to jump in and out to cause wild swings in the $/coin value..
At the moment its value is largely speculative, since there are only a small number of places that you can buy/spend it, *and* its meeting resistance from practically every form of "authority" you can find, since none of them like the idea of "citizens" using forms of money that they cant control, so theres lots of bad press around
Still, nothing better has arisen to take its place - it is still the best designed e-currency system that we know how to make at the moment. As long as just 2 people are running the client, it cant "die", Applications and stores are continuing to grow week by week (you can pay any Australian BPay bills with Bitcoins now) and more are coming.
The actual current exchange-for-dollars value at any particular moment is kind of irrelevant except to those looking to use it just as a method of making more $ rather than as a currency which is what it wants to be.
The question will be, will it gain mass adoption over the next few years as applications grow, or will the sheeple prefer a form of corporate-controlled monopoly money (facebook or microsoft credits) that they dont really own ?
At the moment, it seems the dumb ones prefer a form of money where they can cry to some big brother figure "Hey, that person took my money and didnt give me what they promised, make them give it back to me !" and the big-bro can force compliance.
That sounds nice, safe and comforting, *provided* Big Bro doesnt mind what you spent your money on, or who with. Wikileaks ? Porn ? Donations to opposing Political Parties ? Illegal Information ? Unlicensed Software ? Pirate Wares or Goods ? Unapproved Product Brands ? Grey Imports ?
Too bad, So Sad. Their Money" cant be used for things they dont want it to. They said so.
Time will tell if the sheeple want to really *own* their own freedom money, or prefer Big Bro to look after them and use his.
_________________
Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people
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Wed Oct 19, 2011 10:10 am |
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Spockie-Tech
Site Admin
Joined: 31 May 2004
Posts: 3160
Location: Melbourne, Australia
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Im sure that early holders did mint a bunch of coins when it was easy to do so, and a lot of them probably have cashed-out by now, which was a fairly inevitable outcome..
But in all fairness, they did create and get started something that has a *lot* of value and can continue on without them, so I dont begrudge them their "get rich quick" if they did, they earned it. Any new system of exchange that has enforced scarcity will have to get past that stage, and it will eventually as the intial miners and hoarders sell of their coins.
They developed, tested and debugged the software, they ran the early mining/crypto network machines that got things off the ground.. Now, thanks to their work, we have an unkillable, open-source, P2P, strong crypto, money-transfer system up and running.. Where it goes from here is up to the population at large..
If there are enough people who *want* freedom from wall-street, Reserve Banks, and manipulated money markets, well, the door is now open.. There *is* a workable alternative that looks solid for the forseeable future..
Whether people choose to step outside the nice safe comfy barn is up to them.. They can stay in the nice safe comfy barn if prefer to know they have a warm bed, a farmer who will keep the wolves away, and feed them tomorrow.. As long as they realise that the Farmer isnt doing all of that for them because he like Animals.
Whether its regular milking (fees) or market-day (bailouts etc), the cost of running the existing financial systems with their million-dollar managers and manipulators *will* be paid by all participants sooner or later.
Bitcoins are an alternative system of unforgeable, secure, anonymous, uncontrollable and unblockable, symbol of value exchange. What people choose to make of that service is up to them.
_________________
Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people
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Wed Oct 19, 2011 4:07 pm |
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Spockie-Tech
Site Admin
Joined: 31 May 2004
Posts: 3160
Location: Melbourne, Australia
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Sorry to be snide Sean, but your comments show you understand very little about what Bitcoin is, what it is intended to do, and where it is in its uptake curve.
"The rise and fall of bitcoin". haha, I read that article the other day, another wanker with the foresight of a gnat.
Bitcoin has been in existence for just over 2 years, has had a brief blip of very limited public awareness, a single bubble/rush of "get rich quick" day-trader speculators hoping to make millions in months/years who bailed at the first wobble and mr-financial-guru thinks the game is over ? It isnt even the end of the first quarter.
Bitcoin is not a way of "buy 10 bitcoins with your 20 fiat dollars today and sell them again for thousands of fiat dollars soon".
Bitcoin is the first practical method of moving "Value tokens" from person to person, anywhere in the world, in minutes, without interference, restrictions, central control, or snooping.
It is the "Linux" of money. The freeing of trade from the clutches of the worlds bankers and elite. And about time too.
Sure, right now, there are plenty of cranks, sharks, profiteerers, black markets and so on. So What ? Do you think Hoolio wasnt paid in cash US$ for the kilo of cocaine he just delivered ? OMG, Criminals use US$ - How Evil !
Spend some serious brain time researching the history of money in the world, look into the thalers, the zimbabwe dollar, the german marks being burnt as firewood (because they worth less than real wood was) and so on. Dont just parrot what the media buzz of the week says.
Try starting here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
or perhaps here https://www.google.com/search?q=purchasing+power+of+dollar+over+time&um=1&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&biw=1336&bih=853
Have a read of this - https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Myths
And think about what attributes you think money *should* have. You might be surprised at what you realise if you put some actual thought into it.
Yes, I still have a reasonable amount of bitcoins, I have spent more than I am keeping.. Whenever I spend some, I replace them with a few extra added on.. I am not holding them just on the hope that they will make me rich in fiat-$ down the track.
Based on a not insignificant amount of research, I think they offer the best hope of freedom from the hidden chains of the worlds financial elite enslaving people with debt and dollars that we have ever seen.
I dont want to be rich, just free of the influence of those who are. Bitcoins offer that possibility to me in the future. I hope it works. Ask me in ten years, not in 10 months.
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Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people
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Wed Nov 30, 2011 1:11 am |
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seanet1310
Joined: 08 Nov 2006
Posts: 1265
Location: Adelaide
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Until such time an entire econamy can be run bia bitcoin or other non fiat currency it must always be compared and be transferable to fiat.
Right now yes you can buy things with bitcoins BUT the people selling will have to convert to fiat money to pay their distributes.
When you can pay people, buy resources, sell resources, invest resources, pay off loans all without having to resort to the local fiat the current will stand a chance of standing by its own. Even then conversion process will have to exist.
Example, I read somewhere the first bitcoin purchase was for a pizza (who cares if its right, it will work as an example) Suppose the local pizza shop takes bitcoins, You call them up, order your pizza pay with bitcoins. Now they have your bitcoins, At this stage and by the looks of things not for quite a while the pizza shops flour supplier, tomato, employees etc will wish to be paid in the local fiat currency. Therefore it must be converted. Even if the flour guy is willing to take bitcoins he will have to pay his workers, his suppliers, his machinery and it goes on and on.
The reason I stated the value will need to greatly increase is simple, Lets say bitcoins succeeds and becomes a global currency. Products are still going to have a value representative to current value from a fiat. At most their are 21million bitcoins to be created (in over 100 years but lets forget about that bit for now)
I am sure we can all agree Austraila is a small country with a small economy. Its GDP is 924billion USD. Now if bitcoin where to replace the currency in Austrlai at its maximum 21million bitcoins each bitcoin would have to be worth $38500 USD in transfer to fiat. As I mentioned before fiat transfer will always be needed unless you have a global banking system all on bitcoins just like atm we transfer from fiat to fiat in the currency market.
At the moment a bitcoin is 2-3USD I think like I said its future fiat conversion will need to be far above the hight we have seen so far.
All currencies have had an investment component, this is why we have currency markets. Bitcoin is no different as shown by its recent highs in the middle of the year.
I did not mean to suggest that you where one of the people trying to get rich in fiat with bitcoins, Sorry if it came off that way. As an advocate I was just curious with your current investment profile. If some perceive a chance to make money via such a means however a couple will take it, I have no doubt a bunch lost lots of money on it and a few made a large chunk of money on it. (in this case I use money to represent our traditional current view on it ie. the universally recognised fiat's)
Bitcoins by nature can not undergo hyperfinslation. The entire bitcoin system would collapse, Yes I do relies this however the fact. This can be a good thing and a bad. If the cause of hyperinflation happen bitcoins will fail. It is also putting significant issues on inflation and this is a natural part of currency and trade.
Not many countries will be willing to give up their own control and influence over a currency making it hard for bitcoins to be the world dominate to avoid fiat transfers. Very few countries even under hyperinflation adopt another currency, Zimbabwe being one of the exceptions.
I have spent more time on pro bitcoin website then anti bitcoin media.
I personally doubt bitcoins will succeed long term. I think it is far more likely that a new system learning from bitcoins pros and cons will succeed if any such system. The current bitcoin system is just too ridgid and designed as such while this offers many advantages to avoid a single person or couple of people (Eg Mugabe) completely fucking shit up it also limits natural change, progression and evolution markets undertake. But we are all untitled to our opinion. I may be wrong, you may be wrong, We may both be wrong who knows what the future holds, This is why we have futures markets. Another thing limited as far as I can tell by the bitcoins.
Re the criminal behaviour all I made was a joking remark at the end of my last post. Of course all currencies have been used illegal activities. The problem with this is it is not a state backed system so such actions can draw undesired attention, There also seams to be potential tax issues with the current setup and some countries laws. These will all have to be resolved before the currency can mature. At this stage the would governments could regulate bitcoins into the ground and destroy it if they choose.
P.S I never said the current system was great or without faults.
P.P.S If this is a little disjointed I wrote it while arguing about 4 other media topics in various computer mediums over a decent time period
EDIT: READ SPOOKIES REPLY BEFORE READING BELLOW
I can not be bothered responding to Brett in a new post after his reply.
I will just say. Yes that was hyperinflation, I know you have never hit the wrong key before Brett but not everyone is as perfect as you.
Some hyperinflation is common and part of the system. I see no way bitcoin is designed to make it so the root courses leading to hyperinflation are guaranteed to be avoided, I just see how the system can never recover from such inflation unlike many other currencies that have successfully undergone hyperinflation and now are productive members of the international money system you hate so much.
Inflation in general is required.
I at no point said that bitcoins will never stand by themself. I just said for the recent future someone will need to convert into fiat, I know you seam to think not but I feel you are closed minded in this regard and concentrate on the few places that take it around the world and think that somehow these can mutually and perceptually sustain themselves on pure bitcoins without transfer to and from fiat. While fiat is such a major component it must be considered.
I never claimed any completely new insight, I figured robowars forum was a place of discussion, Now I relies it is not. It is a place where some people can mention ideas similar to people on other sites no problem and some people get attacked for the exact same actions. Show me your brand new insights.
Do most Australians have food on the table, somewhere to not freeze to death, the ability to go buy more then rice and beans? go to the movie, have a bit of spare cash to build things like the bots here on robowars? clearly we are not that bad off. I never claimed and if you check even stated that I never claimed the system was perfect.
How you can think the first serious attempt at this that has got past initial stage will be the one that works forever is beyond me. Yes there are some good ideas but as you state the current system does not work fully and it is not in V1.0, it has undergone major revamps over its time (gold to fiat as one example)
Sure much could be learnt from this and adopted into a future system maybe then it will have a chance of long term survival.
May I ask how you declare this on tax? as a non cash asset?, a cash asset? do not declare at all? If the final one I hope you do not use public roads, use a hospital, get any form of education, claim any form of welfare in the future and one of many other things payed for by our tax system. You speak about how innovative this system is that frees people. I did not notice any sites in quick research pointing out how it links in with each countries tax and legal system. Did I miss it? if so feel free to link me. I would expect it from the start as well, you like to claim how visionary the creators are. If you believe we should not pay tax you are not worth my time beyond me laughing at you.
I must look at your forum signature while reading the reply you gave 'Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people'
You like to discuss events, Average. You also like to discuss people by making quite a few references to me not directly related to the posts in your last 2 replies.
I would have to say by your own sig you are mostly a small mind.
_________________
Remember to trust me, I am an Engineer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rp8hvyjZWHs
Last edited by seanet1310 on Thu Dec 01, 2011 10:17 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Wed Nov 30, 2011 2:16 pm |
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Spockie-Tech
Site Admin
Joined: 31 May 2004
Posts: 3160
Location: Melbourne, Australia
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Umm, Disjointed ? How about *unintelligible* ?
For example, Can you explain what you are trying to say with this ?
quote:
Bitcoins by nature can not undergo hyperfinslation. The entire bitcoin system would collapse, Yes I do relies this however the fact. This can be a good thing and a bad. If the cause of hyperinflation happen bitcoins will fail. It is also putting significant issues on inflation and this is a natural part of currency and trade.
Bitcoins cannot by nature undergo hyperinflation, but this is good and bad, but if the cause happens, then bitcoins will fail and this (I assume you mean hyperinflation) is a natural part of currency and trade ?
Ah Wot ?
If thats all the effort you can be bothered putting into replying, I dont think its even worth discussing this topic with you. I'll overlook the poor response this time, but if you feel strongly about it, please at least put some effort into making a coherent response next time or I will ignore you hereafter.
Your basic premise that Bitcoins will always need to be converted to fiat is incorrect.
At the moment while the market for goods and services is small, someone taking payment for a service in bitcoins only needs to convert them to fiat if they need to immediately spend that money with a provider who doesnt presently accept bitcoins.
Eg. I would work for you with payment in bitcoins, I can use those coins to buy computer parts, food, and many other staple products. The receivers of those coins can then use them to hire me, or many other people. No fiat money is ever involved in such a cycle.
Sure, At the moment , some fiat $ are needed by each person to pay for their electricity, taxes, and things that dont accept bitcoin as payment, but as the market grows, those items become less.
Its no different in principle to any country starting their own currency. You can say "oh, but country X will always need US$ to buy import goods".. What about countries with a positive balance-of-trade ? (yes, there are some). Or what about purely internal trade ?
The current system is a shell-game.. No financial system in the history of the world has ever lasted more than a few generations before the house of cards comes tumbling down, the manipulations of the people who control the printing presses is exposed, depressions and crashes happen, "fiat money" becomes toilet paper and it all collapses, then restarts with a new bunch of "trustworthy guys" in charge.
Bitcoin is the first system where there is no need for "trustworthy entities"..
Where more money cannot be created anytime a government decides to throw a war or spend your grandchildrens retirement pension now, hoping someone else will figure out where to find the payback means later (after they're out of power),
Where banks cannot lend money they dont have, or any of the common abuses of money that has happened again and again in the past.
I have seen quite a few people argue "wait for Bitcoin v2.0".. that is similair thinking to the oil industry saying "dont buy electric cars yet, they arent ready.. stick with your oil burners until the electric guys get their cars better".. Of course by doing that, you just guarrantee that they wont. thus making the fuel burners happy.
So far I have seen no structural or principle flaws with the present bitcoin system, so the value of coins needs to increase over time to X00,00$ per coin.. So what ?
30 years ago, I could buy a brand new nice car for $3,000, now its more like $30,000, so your dollar is now worth 1/10th of what it was half a generation back, so bitcoins value will need to increase over time, why is this a problem ?
Guess what, the guy who designed the system *did* actually realise that, and it is designed into the systems projected adoption curve..
Anyway, like I said, you have said nothing that I havent heard said by others objecting to the idea based on their own half-understood economic principles. principles espoused by the current economic schools who have just done a wonderful job of keeping the worlds economy on an even keel for the last 50 years havent they ?
I dont think any of the current economic schools of thought have any bloody idea of what they are doing, they are taking wild guesses in the dark, and hoping to fudge it as they go along (to their benefit).
Bitcoin is a completely open-principle system that cannot be be fudged, fiddled with or devalued by external forces.. it is the best idea for a ptential currency I have seen yet.
Long Term, It may not work, but in my opinion, if it doesnt, it will be because people are too stupid to recognise a good idea when it is put in front of them, and opt for the comfort of the familair, where the robberies happen out of their sight a little at a time, so they dont realise their work-value is being eroded/stolen bit by bit each day.
It probably wont be because there is anything fundamentally wrong with the Bitcoin idea. More knowledgable people than you or I have tried to *prove* (not suggest) some fundamental problem with the system and all failed so far.
As usual, it will most likely come down to mind-share.. If the sheeple will lie down for another round or three of "we need to spend another few trillion of your tax $ with our compadres in mega-corp land, to make sure our current systems dont collapse [yet]", then thats up to them.
Personally, Im tired of "elected officials" with near-unlimited expense accounts telling us we need to work harder to maintain the status quo. Any system that removes power from the few and moves it into the hands of the many is a good thing in my opinion. Open Source, Linux, Bitcoins, Internet, P2P Media, etc..
Decentralised freedom is a much better principle. Applying freedom-creating-methods to the monetary system seems like a good next step to me.
_________________
Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people
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Thu Dec 01, 2011 9:47 pm |
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